How is this for my first EA? I think the figures are unbelievably good! What do you think?

 

Test run from 13 May 2011 to 7 Sept 2011. Know it is short period but planning to calibrate every week to latest data to deal with new market dynamics








Bars in test
106905 Ticks modelled 14358974 Modelling quality 25.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 30255.79 Gross profit 34972.20 Gross loss -4716.41
Profit factor 7.42 Expected payoff 530.80
Absolute drawdown 300.42 Maximal drawdown 6704.10 (20.91%) Relative drawdown 22.91% (3709.90)
Total trades 57 Short positions (won %) 41 (92.68%) Long positions (won %) 16 (93.75%)
Profit trades (% of total) 53 (92.98%) Loss trades (% of total) 4 (7.02%)
Largest profit trade 1666.96 loss trade -1787.72
Average profit trade 659.85 loss trade -1179.10
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 27 (16272.78) consecutive losses (loss in money) 3 (-2928.69)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 16272.78 (27) consecutive loss (count of losses) -2928.69 (3)
Average consecutive wins 18 consecutive losses 2
Graph

 

If the strategy was sound you may have something - if its just a few indicators optimized together then probably not

Points to note:-

- Too few trades to be usefully assessed

- Low modelling quality

- Planning to calibrate every week to latest data (aka repeated curve-fitting)

See if the values you are optimizing could be derived in real time, e.g. stops calculated by current S/R levels or ATR based pip levels

FWIW

-BB-

 

Run it on a demo account for a while. if you can produce these figures for 3 months before you risk real money then you are on a winner. I am sure if you played around with the code you could get better performance out of it than that. Try use least filters as possible. I optimise every day with previous 2 weeks of historical data. I get about 5~6% return on investment a day on my live account.

 
mbirrell:

Run it on a demo account for a while. if you can produce these figures for 3 months before you risk real money then you are on a winner. I am sure if you played around with the code you could get better performance out of it than that. Try use least filters as possible. I optimise every day with previous 2 weeks of historical data. I get about 5~6% return on investment a day on my live account.


Wow! Can I buy your EA? Do you actually more than double your equity every month? You must be on your way to being a millionaire!

I use a strategy and not indicators for this EA, although I do use two indicators as filters.

The only problem with this EA is that it does very few transactions. Sometimes a week or more can go by without any transactions being done. If I change the parameters to get more transactions the quality and profitability suffers.

 

I am sure your EA will be as good - I have only just put my EA into production around 2 weeks ago. I have to of my mate that have also put money on it with there own accounts and they are smilling. The thing about giving EAs' away is that everyone is happy while they make money but if it wipes their account they will be after you no matter what they said before. I have talked to a few people about doing it and everyone has come to the conclusion not to. However when my EA has proven its self over time I probably will reconsidder as I will have more confidence that it won't bust anyone's account - if it did I would feel really bad. If I can do this anyone can.

 
mbirrell:

I am sure your EA will be as good - I have only just put my EA into production around 2 weeks ago. I have to of my mate that have also put money on it with there own accounts and they are smilling. The thing about giving EAs' away is that everyone is happy while they make money but if it wipes their account they will be after you no matter what they said before. I have talked to a few people about doing it and everyone has come to the conclusion not to. However when my EA has proven its self over time I probably will reconsidder as I will have more confidence that it won't bust anyone's account - if it did I would feel really bad. If I can do this anyone can.

LOL, agreed

 

Hi Ernest,

the results look very promising, but the 25% modelling quality and the low number of trades could be a problem for the reliability of the results in the long run.
I have access to 99% tick data for almost all pairs; I'm very interested in helping you optimize the EA more thorougly if you would like this.

Another suggestion: I am a computer engineer and have been coding EA's for retail investors on the side (for a fee most of the times).
However, since the EA seems profitable I would be more then happy to work together with you on this project (for free, in my own spare time). I can probably modify/change or add functionality much faster and cleaner (assuming that you have not that much programming experience). I can also rewrite the EA in a stable (errorhandling) and platform independent way if you want. In return I would like your permission to use the EA in my own trading.

It's just a suggestion. I'd understand it if you do not want to share your code with someone else :) But if you are interested.. feel free to contact me here or in a pm.

Good luck with your EA.

Thanks!

 
Mismatched charts errors 0 . . . . probably tested on M15 hence the 25% modelling quality.
 
FXTrader_X:

Hi Ernest,

the results look very promising, but the 25% modelling quality and the low number of trades could be a problem for the reliability of the results in the long run.
I have access to 99% tick data for almost all pairs; I'm very interested in helping you optimize the EA more thorougly if you would like this.

Another suggestion: I am a computer engineer and have been coding EA's for retail investors on the side (for a fee most of the times).
However, since the EA seems profitable I would be more then happy to work together with you on this project (for free, in my own spare time). I can probably modify/change or add functionality much faster and cleaner (assuming that you have not that much programming experience). I can also rewrite the EA in a stable (errorhandling) and platform independent way if you want. In return I would like your permission to use the EA in my own trading.

It's just a suggestion. I'd understand it if you do not want to share your code with someone else :) But if you are interested.. feel free to contact me here or in a pm.

Good luck with your EA.

Thanks!

I have not been back to the forum for a couple of days. Yesterday I could not get in at all.

I see you are new on the forum. What level of expertise do you have in MQL4? More importantly - do you know MQL5. If you do - we have a couple of days before the 2011 competition enrollments close. If you can convert this EA to MQL5 and anything comes from it we can share the price money.

If you can optimise this EA in MQL4 and sort out one of the issues I want to change and perhaps have the number of transactions per month increase without loosing too much profitability you can have my permission to use the EA for your own personal trading.

What do you say?

Reason: