EA strategy needs coded - wow wow wow !!!!!! - page 2
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I'm new to Trading and I'm not a mathematician. However, from what I understand, focusing so heavily on win-rate without specifying the average loss is a mistake. That's like giving advice to Sell the Eur-Usd but you don't specify when nor for how much. You have really good points, all well explained and informative but half-baked. This is the dilemma I noticed on this forum, everyone wants to give good advice but afraid to give away too much of their hard earned systems.
Yep, with good reasons: it's 'expensive' to obtain on many levels. There is not other substitute for 'time in!'
'Experience comes before Expertise, even in the dictionary!'
I'm concluding an expensive and extensive long term 1 on 1 tutoring with a successful ForEx trader (half my age) and as he keeps reinforcing, losses ARE more important than profits. Diminishing returns to boot. If you have a system with a very high success rate, money management that increases trades at times is fine. But the lower your wins/losses rate is, the more your money management should be cutting back on your trades. If in a deep deficit one needs to be smart, patient, persistent and.slowly, carefully, cautiously and safely nurse your account back up to it's normal 'balance range'
EACH and EVERY trade is evaluated individually for confidence and a probability assessment is made on the outcome and the trade is configured and placed accordingly, or not at all !
Also, developing your trading plan and sticking to it is crucial. The latter part is hard to do, but every time I've strayed from it, I always end up paying for it.
When I started my tutoring my loss rate was almost 100% !!! Initially I finally figured that if I did the exact opposite of what my conclusion was, I'd do a lot better. I've been forced to take a long term break away from it before finishing it it up. But I put my last ~ 140 tutoring trades from a couple of months onto a spread sheet and my success rate was ~ 80+ %.! Surprised me as well and gave me very much needed reassurance and confidence boost.
I'm strictly a technical trader, but I doubled my live ForEx account in two hours after one of Toyota's recall announcements. Given the fact that I was way out of my element, along with the fact that I haven't started trading in the CHF or JPY in my tutoring yet, I was very lucky, But I also used knowledge, common sense and experience and traded accordingly. It also helps that I am not very strongly financially orientated and motivated so I don't get all wound up emotionally about it and get bent out of shape with greed. I am NOT a gambler in the least! It has absolutely no attraction for me.
Well, I guess I have to jump in at this point and say; I don't think so. I've been trading at over 90% accuracy for quite some time now. Been bouncing back and forth between my trading system (in Excel) for more than 7 years, until I felt 100% comfortable with its better than 90% accuracy. Examine what it means to have a 100% trading system. What does that really mean? That somebody developed a trading system that reaches its Limit Order before it reaches the Stop Order, a high percentage of the time. In other words, it is not difficult at all to design and develop a near perfect trading system. That's not the issue - I've done it. The real issue is whether or not your Revenue Model (Money Management) is fully integrated into your trading system AND whether or not your trade signal contains enough magnitude to reach your Limit Order, before the market's magnitude forces your Stop Order. That's the key. That's the name of the game.
Therefore, trading at high levels of accuracy (near the 100% level), is very doable, but it depends on WHERE you locate your Limit and your Stop. If your Revenue Model is optimized for low net gains per trade, then you don't have to collect every single dollar or ever single pip the market has to offer. All your system needs to be able to do, is throw a trade signal near the start of magnitude for each subsequent move the market makes, sufficient ONLY to scrape the number of "low net gains per trade" ratio that your Revenue Model (not your trading system) dictates. It all comes down to how well you integrate and then optimize the Revenue Model with the magnitude contained inside each trade signal thrown by your system. Absent insider information about the market you trade (illegal in most instances), this is how you construct a high accuracy trading system. You do it by focusing equally as much on the Revenue Model, as you do the trade signal. Too many Traders out there are totally confused on this subject. They think that all of their time should be spent on building a trading system that scores every single net gain the market has to offer and then some. Not true! Never has been and never will be true. Use the right Leverage, use the right Cost Basis Per Trade (% of capital used) and target the right number of pips (in the case of the Forex) and you can strike levels of accuracy that the average trader only dreams about.
The hard part about all of this, is simply accepting the truth about it! My system is right now trading at 93.87% to a highly optimized target level - per trade. That means that my system fails to strike its target less than 7% of the time and its been doing this for a very long time. The lowest dip in performance - my Black Swan period - had the system dipping down to 90.12%. After that, it roared back to above the 93% level where it feels much more at home.
This brings up four (4) ageless words in trading:
Timing
Direction
Magnitude
Probability
Trade with those four (4) principles and things get a lot more fluent on the equity curve.
Why do people fail? Because they ignore one or more of these four (4) giants. Or, because they never understood any of them before. High performing systems have these giants under control. In fact, show me ANY high performance trader (those trading above the 85% accuracy to target level) and I guarantee you that you will find that all of these giants have, one way or another, have been accounted for and are major components of the system in use - whether the system designer wants to admit it or not, lol! You cannot achieve lasting, high performance success as a Trader (absent insider information) by ignoring these key components. Optimize all four (4) and you can't help but be successful.
Ruthless consistency to an optimized target and smart Revenue handling, is the only real show on Broadway. Nail that, and you can kiss mediocrity goodbye.
Some strategy is not easy to code into EA,it seems that you said is about your trading strategy instead of EA ?
Do you trade automatically with EA,or trade manually via EXCEL calcualtion ?
... You have really good points, all well explained and informative but half-baked. This is the dilemma I noticed on this forum, everyone wants to give good advice but afraid to give away too much of their hard earned systems.
ubzen wrote >>
Common non-sense to my ears. Whats the point in telling people, In order to be successful at trading you must, Place your order at the right Time; In the right Direction; for the right Quantity and Oh by the way, make sure the Probability of winning is on your side. If that's the case here's my Investment advice for the day "Buy Low and Sell High". Wow, I'm sharing wisdom Lolz.
Which part of my post didn't you get ?
"everyone wants to give good advice but afraid to give away too much of their hard earned systems." This is common sense. I'm quoting your very own words !? :)))))))
"if you live it & believe it then it's true. " - I'm quoting myself. And now translating it for you : " If Fractalizer7 experienced it & believe it's true then it's true for him. same thing goes for me or anyone else that considers an alternative quoting from Henry Ford weigh some truth.
"if you live it & believe it then it's true. " - I'm quoting myself. And now translating it for you : " If Fractalizer7 experienced it & believe it's true then it's true for him. same thing goes for me or anyone else
PMA (Positive Mental Attitude) can make substantial difference to us beings that have little bit of individuated Ego incarnated into us now that makes it possible for us to be sentient, self aware and not just 'stuck in the moment' as all animals are and stand outside the flow of time and be aware of other things and contemplate them.and gives us the possibility of self awareness and true 'Free Will. Something that most of us have very little of and rarely manifest! It also gives us the possibility of following and succumbing to 'wants and desires' as opposed to just being true to our nature and act only in accordance with it as all other living things do. Only 'human' beings have the choice and can do 'good or evil'
But PMA has limitations: what you experience as 'your truth' does not make it a true reality other than perhaps in our deluded minds that 'want' things to be other than what they are.. When you lose on a trade, this is all to clear, regardless of what 'your truth' about it may have been. 'Reality comes 'crashing in'' sometimes catastrophically. Still this very new and immature aspect in us opens up and provides for the opportunity of great possibilities and potential for us.
Only 'heart felt thinking' can properly discern 'truth and reality' correctly. Either one operating and affecting us in isolation of the other leads us astray and into delusion. http://wWw.RudolfSteinerWeb.Com/
If one can achieve this, then the task becomes for these 'truths' to be manifest through True FREE Will, which is a lot rarer than most people believe it to be.
'To know, but not to 'do', is not 'to know' Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
'Ride the horse in the direction that it is going'. Werner Erhard
I'm a NuB so can't help you directly.
bump,
thanks fourX for your comments,
however the plan is to trade commodities on cfds, which alot of the FX brokers have started to offer. Which are of course a bit like options ! however us europeans can do both !
cheers and it is great to see the comments coming......
Anymore offers from coders ? I would be grateful and am ready to go, with partial completion of the EA ! As, I was working with one guy, who pulled out as was too busy in the end ! So, another set back from back testing and going live.....