EXPERIENCED FOREX TRADERS/EA PROGRAMMERS PLEASE LOOK!!! is a 50%+ portfolio in only 5 days possible? This seems too good to be true...

 

Hi folks, I have been testing a multitude of systems (EAs) and after many, many lackluster results and complete failures I have come up with one that is giving solid results. That was quite a challenge. I don't believe in backtesting so I just forward test by letting a demo run in realtime and play the moves that way.

It took many modifications and tweaks and tests, but it seems I have nailed it on a demo account. One problem though, it seems too good to be true so naturally I am skeptical. Have a look below. This is on a 1-200 Micro Alpari (US) acocunt. It looks like you can only get a 1-100 Micro Live account though and this demo account is a Micro 1-200 leverage account. Is that the reason for my results below (it is on a demo 1:200 leverage test account vs a 1:100 actual account that a live account can be) or are my lot sizes (based on an Alpari Micro account) just too big to have continued succes over the long term and my lot size for testing is just too aggresive and I have been plain lucky this far and this system will surely fail? I'm fairly new to this FOREX stuff so I am an amateur at best. I am excited though. Margin and drawdown do not seem to be major concerns yet. This is a martingale stratey EA by the way.

Any analysis from some seasoned FOREX traders woud be appreciated. It cannot possibly be this easy can it? a 50% account total gain in just a couple days obviously sounds too good to be true. Honesty is appreciated....

See attached file for a detailed report.

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 5 162.23 Floating P/L: -272.71 Margin: 875.38
Balance: 15 162.23 Equity: 14 889.52 Free Margin: 14 014.14
Details:
Gross Profit: 8 542.75 Gross Loss: 3 380.52 Total Net Profit: 5 162.23
Profit Factor: 2.53 Expected Payoff: 31.67
Absolute Drawdown: 0.00 Maximal Drawdown: 780.00 (5.96%) Relative Drawdown: 5.96% (780.00)
Total Trades: 163 Short Positions (won %): 78 (61.54%) Long Positions (won %): 85 (76.47%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 113 (69.33%) Loss trades (% of total): 50 (30.67%)
Largest profit trade: 960.00 loss trade: -240.00
Average profit trade: 75.60 loss trade: -67.61
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 23 (1 130.97) consecutive losses ($): 4 (-329.09)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 1 164.62 (5) consecutive loss (count): -480.00 (2)
Average consecutive wins: 4 consecutive losses: 2

 
Sorry, having troubles with the attachment...Trying again...
Files:
 
Here are some results with 1-100 Leverage. This test was started a few days after the above 1-200 leverage test. Still a good return but using more margin I see.
 
sequity:
Here are some results with 1-100 Leverage. This test was started a few days after the above 1-200 leverage test. Still a good return but using more margin I see.

Have you tried backtesting it? What kind of results do you get? I wonder now if stradegy tester has any value.

 

Sequity

Well done for getting the EA this far :)

Some points to note:-

An MT demo account will give slightly differnt results compared to a brokers demo account.

The lot size calculation may be Martingale but any trade signal patterns that the EA is following will be different on a real account.

I have had some EA's that were hugely profitable for up to 2 weeks but could lose it all & more in 48 hours with just a small change in market conditions.

They were beyond fixing (I did try!) - the system was fatally flawed :(

As a very general rule, a couple of months on a demo account would be the minimum to evaluate an EA.

The greater the drawdown potential, the longer you should test for - any Martingale is a severe risk for losing the lot in a hurry :(

Expect to have to re-optimise on a real account and get different results

FWIW

-BB-

 
BarrowBoy:

Sequity

Well done for getting the EA this far :)

Some points to note:-

An MT demo account will give slightly differnt results compared to a brokers demo account.

The lot size calculation may be Martingale but any trade signal patterns that the EA is following will be different on a real account.

I have had some EA's that were hugely profitable for up to 2 weeks but could lose it all & more in 48 hours with just a small change in market conditions.

They were beyond fixing (I did try!) - the system was fatally flawed :(

As a very general rule, a couple of months on a demo account would be the minimum to evaluate an EA.

The greater the drawdown potential, the longer you should test for - any Martingale is a severe risk for losing the lot in a hurry :(

Expect to have to re-optimise on a real account and get different results

FWIW

-BB-

Thanks BarrowBoy. The account is up 91% now in 8 days however as you point out there are sever risks with any Maringale system in a hurry. I was donw nearly $7000 in an hour. Forunatley the system worked and closed out at a profit however I am more aware that any Martingale has the potential to crater. I'm trying to find a way to filter position opening by Indicator singals rather than price movement. If that works out I will share the findings. In the meantime I will let the system run to see if/when it fails to gather some data to learn from it.

Cheers

Shayne

 

Hi Shayne


Well I am willing to test it on a live account 1:100 Alpari with £1000.00 start and give you the login to check for yourself...



If you send me the EA

 

Sorry - pressed return to early!


Email me at mt4.1@teamatthetop.com if you are interested



Regards



Andy

 
163 trades in just 5 days seems like a lot to me. Does this test include the spreads?
 
sequity:
Sorry, having troubles with the attachment...Trying again...

Hi have gone through the result of the EA on both leverage can you pls let me know the name of the EA you are talking about and if you can let me have the website of how i can get the EA i will really appritiate that, thanks and you can send me email at floconcept@yahoo.com

 
sequity:

Hi folks, I have been testing a multitude of systems (EAs) and after many, many lackluster results and complete failures I have come up with one that is giving solid results. That was quite a challenge. I don't believe in backtesting so I just forward test by letting a demo run in realtime and play the moves that way.

It took many modifications and tweaks and tests, but it seems I have nailed it on a demo account. One problem though, it seems too good to be true so naturally I am skeptical. Have a look below. This is on a 1-200 Micro Alpari (US) acocunt. It looks like you can only get a 1-100 Micro Live account though and this demo account is a Micro 1-200 leverage account. Is that the reason for my results below (it is on a demo 1:200 leverage test account vs a 1:100 actual account that a live account can be) or are my lot sizes (based on an Alpari Micro account) just too big to have continued succes over the long term and my lot size for testing is just too aggresive and I have been plain lucky this far and this system will surely fail? I'm fairly new to this FOREX stuff so I am an amateur at best. I am excited though. Margin and drawdown do not seem to be major concerns yet. This is a martingale stratey EA by the way.

Any analysis from some seasoned FOREX traders woud be appreciated. It cannot possibly be this easy can it? a 50% account total gain in just a couple days obviously sounds too good to be true. Honesty is appreciated....

See attached file for a detailed report.

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 5 162.23 Floating P/L: -272.71 Margin: 875.38
Balance: 15 162.23 Equity: 14 889.52 Free Margin: 14 014.14
Details:
Gross Profit: 8 542.75 Gross Loss: 3 380.52 Total Net Profit: 5 162.23
Profit Factor: 2.53 Expected Payoff: 31.67
Absolute Drawdown: 0.00 Maximal Drawdown: 780.00 (5.96%) Relative Drawdown: 5.96% (780.00)
Total Trades: 163 Short Positions (won %): 78 (61.54%) Long Positions (won %): 85 (76.47%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 113 (69.33%) Loss trades (% of total): 50 (30.67%)
Largest profit trade: 960.00 loss trade: -240.00
Average profit trade: 75.60 loss trade: -67.61
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 23 (1 130.97) consecutive losses ($): 4 (-329.09)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 1 164.62 (5) consecutive loss (count): -480.00 (2)
Average consecutive wins: 4 consecutive losses: 2

I would like permition to test this with my backtester email me at scott.erickson@sbcglobal.net

Reason: