The refund should not be difficult to attain. John Buroughs, the creator has been in constant contact, and is working very hard improving his support network and user web site. He reiterated again this weekend that he offers an unconditional 60 day refund. So we still have plenty of time to check this out and make desisions. If you have any questions about getting a refund, just post a note to his support dept. There is a link on the members web site.
So far this is doing everything he claimed it would. He never said that it wouldnt lose. In fact he said to expect a loss sometime. The fact is it never lost during the backtest period, and I have pretty much confirmed that. Granted, the stop loss setting is curve fitted to produce the results he wanted, but that is part of backtesting and optimizing a trading system. I dont mind that. I have other complaints. Such as it only initiates buy to open trades, regardless of the markets action, it has large time drawdowns, trades infrequently, and only for tiny amounts, and carries a huge potential loss. However, its cheap and a reasonable introduction to this whole business. I didnt know this was available at this level untill now. I thought it was only available through a very expensive service like Trade Station. So I guess the real question is, what does it take to do better, can I do it, or buy it? Where, and how much? Simply claiming this is rubish doesnt really do much. It does work, fairly well too. I'm just not satisfied with how it works.
As far as the fact that its lost a few trades. Theres an obvious answer. Look at a long term chart and put up a volitility indicator, such as a 1 period ATR, set the chart to weekly, and go out over 10 years. We havent seen the current level of volitility in the EURUSD since 93. Look at the US stock markets, there a mess, combine that with the global situation and you have a good reason for this volitility. This kind of action wasnt part of the package. That doesnt mean I agree with a 650 pip stop, and a 5 pip target, but the system doesnt work as well when you change the stop. I think if you take this system and test it under calmer circumstances youll get much better results. Thats just part of learning the strengths and weaknesses of the system. Its nearly imposible to find one system that works well in all environments. That doesnt mean I cant find a system that doesnt work better. I think I can, but any system is going to have liabilities. Every good trading strategy has bad times. If you know them, then you know when to back off and when its safer to take on more risk. For example, over a year ago I was still fully invested, making great returns, with the bull market at my back. Even bad trades could be waited out. Now I'm almost 100% in cash. All my trades are tiny and quick, with a strictly limited loss. Its a different market. Not many systems are doing well in this market. None that I know of can be best in both.
I would like to see a system where I could adjust the time frame and structure of the program to the current market, or my personal goals, a simple system using moving averages and some indicators to measure trend, range, and volitility could possibly do it.
For now I'll keep working with this software and see what its capable of.
How to Evaluate the Expert Testing Results
The article gives formulas and the calculation order for data shown in the Tester report.
your not getting 100/1 leverage.
trade 1, 0.68 profit / 12 pips (2x6) = 0.057.
trade 2, 1.03 profit / 18 pips (3x6) = 0.057.
check your account settings, your set at 50/1 leverage.
check your broker to see exactly what a pip is worth. its different for each pair.
there is no standard that says an EURUSD pip is worth 1.
its different with different brokers. some round off to 1 for ease, some are more precise, especially with these small increments.
I wrote several support questions to Buroughs yesterday morning, asking exactly that and a few other questions. Why only buy to open, never sell to open, regardless of market conditions. Why keep the computer running, when no trade is open and none is possible till the next day. I shut down every night and still get my trades. If I'm going to keep my computer running I would like a program that will accually try to pick up trades during that time. If I'm going to trade for such a small gain, I would like it to be more frequent.
There are other $97 robots that make similar claims. Eventualy I would like to look at them as well and compare whats available and being worked on. The robots really only useful if it can do something better or easier than I can without it.
thanks KenL, am asking broker - is alpari and they v.slow to reply. but would like to run info accros u when they do...
not see how learn leverage data. is demo, but anyway, not see how view this.
any way to get Burroughs to take "notice" of this forum and read and maybe think bit about wat punter is thinking about...
seems get stuck in own little bubble - not really understand wat 'perhaps' buyers going through.
by time trial period up, he may realize that has not many buyers ;)
i share what FACR publish. take wat want from it - i not argue bout it, is wat they say. not understand all wat say but maybe good 4 u - u must ask them by ticket system if u have problem:
A large stop loss and small profit objective is not the sole basis of the money management formula. Two other very important components exist: accuracy and leverage.
Some people state that one bad trade can wipe out a whole account. That is true, IF you over leverage your trades. If you use a sensible risk level - say 5%, then one bad trade would only take out 5% of your account. True, the winners would also be much smaller, but that applies to any: High leverage = high risk.
Regarding the above, it is important to also understand that the robot has an integrated compounding formula (profit on your profits) so, even if a small %age of the account is risked per trade and winners are small at the beginning, over time the size of each winner increases since the robot automatically increases lot size (but always operating within the specified risk allowance) as account equity grows.
Regarding the large stop loss. Yes, that is indeed why the strategy is so accurate. For comparison purposes, a strategy that has a much smaller stop loss would in THEORY mean you could use more leverage - even if you use the same leverage as this strategy, a loss would hurt you less. But, a strategy with a much smaller stop loss, say 100 pips, can (and normally does, at some point) have 10-15 consecutive losing trades. Why? Because a strategy employing a small stop loses is a strategy that HAS to be based on one of the following market conditions: ranging or trending.
If reliant on a ranging market it might do VERY well when conditions are right, just to give it all back (and wipe out an account) once the market starts trending (and vice versa).
The objective - the strategy logic of the Forex AutoCash Robot is to withstand change in market conditions... something that most Forex robots cannot do for the reasons mentioned above. However, in trading, there are no “free lunches” so to speak. Hence, for a strategy that can cope with different market conditions, you need a large stop loss and the use of correct money management principles as already stated.
It is also very important to note the use of accuracy within the general logic of robot. The robot sometimes needs to hold positions open for quite some time. This means that once the position is closed, the account is credited with the SWAP interest earned during the trade. This swap interest can amount to a lot since the accounts earn interest on the amount traded (1 lot = $100,000), not the deposited amount. Many traders do not understand this tactic, but it is a profitable one.
Kent, sorry but not soliciting and not recommending. Got a little tired of the robot so went searching in this forum and found a thread about Autopilot, maybe you should check it out also, bought mine today and still playing around with it :-) Warning first !!! ALL and I mean ALL ROBOTS haves DRAWDOWNS including this one. Go poke around. I'm pretty happy with it with plenty of information.
As for the Autocash, like you said, we still have time to justify whether to return or not, meantime, let's just have some fun.............:-)
Your risk, not my gain......heeheehee...
" Every day at 5 pm Eastern Time, " Carry Interest" is tallied up for the full contract amount and posted to your account.
In other words, if at 5:00 you're holding a mini position with positive yield, you'll earn interest on the full 10,000 units even though, at 100:1 margin you only put up $100!
And Wednesday, triple interest will be posted to your account to make up for the weekend... even if you didn't enter the trade untill that day!
So, if Wednesday afternoon you put up $1,000 to buy one full size contract, you could expect interest to be posted to your account before the day is out!
Figuratively speaking, you write a chaeck agaist one bank and deposit it in anouther bank.
All transactions must be settled in two business days. So, Forex brokers automatically "roll" any position open at the end of the day over to the next settlement date.
Since you dont actually have any money deposited in the first bank, you pay interest to borrow sufficient funds to cover your "check". And then you earn interest for having it deposited in the second bank!
When you hold a long position, you earn the interest of the first currency and pay the interest of the second currency; and visa versa when your short.
Exception to the rule.
Accounts leveraged at greater than 100:1 are generally denied the privilage of earning the rollover fee. However, they are charged the cost of carry if they hold their position past 5pm EST. For this reason, usually only day traders elect leverage rates higher than 100:1."
Overnight Libor Rates (17:10 GMT)
USD 6.87500 2.56875
EUR 4.44875 3.71250
GBP 6.78125 5.26250
JPY 1.03125 0.91875
CHF 3.33333 2.54167
CAD 4.50000 3.42833
AUD 6.93750 7.25000
NZD 8.87500 8.68750
I've looked at AutoPilot and ForexTracer. I'm interested in both. AutoPilot doesnt run any stop at all, ForexTracer runs a trailing stop, and increases it both as the price increases and as time goes by, so a flat position will get stoped out. Both are very interesting and only $97 each. There is anouther one I was reading about on the ForexPeaceArmy site, (a good product review site, with free market signals and education). I havent had time to find it yet, but they rated it 5 star, it supposedly has the ability to handle 10 positions at once, across multiple currency pairs.
This is all very fasinating, I'm interested in what fbj wrote about different systems for different conditions. I can tell the system what I want it to look for, long trend trades, short trend trades, long and short range trades, targeted swings, trailing stop trend trades, time frames, etc. I just want to automate the process so I dont miss trades, and can do other things while the computer waches for trades.
I have ForexAutocash running on 2 EURUSD charts in the same platform, both generated trades this morning and are running concurrently. The trades were entered at 15:26 and 15:30. I've requested that they add a comment to the Robot, but now see that They should put the Reference # in the comment field of the trade and trade history screens.
Anyway, I'm using 2 different Reference #s, I just changed the last 2 digits of the original one.
If you want to run the Strategy tester on multiple percentages, you can make the changes in the Start, Step and Stop in the Expert Properties. BEWARE this caused my CPU to overheat and crash my PC several times on Sunday, so you should only set 1 or 2 of the properties (like Risk) to step small amounts.
On your problem with the Expert being closed when you run the Strategy tester, check Tools/Options/Expert Advisors
If the 2nd and 3rd items are checked, uncheck them and check the 1st one. If they aren't checked, then I don't know the cause.
thanks, that's the problem. I still have quite a bit to learn about this platform and these programs, but since you can run two of the autocash program, I should be able to run this robot and anouther robot or two at the same time. That way this could pick up its 1 trade per day and the others could fill the empty time such as overnight. The Forex AutoPilot and ForexTracer programs are both inexpensive and interesting.
Autocash account is definately up today.
I downloaded and installed the GBPUSD Wednesday robot yesterday. I set it at -0.1 to start and changed the EURUSD robot to -0.3. I turned my computer on this morning at 7:36, and it almost immediately open two orders on the GBP. The two orders triggered 3 minutes apart and so quickly they never even logged in the journal or experts folders, and only showed under the trade and account history tabs with an incorrect time. This exceeded my initial risk setting, but both ended positively at 8:08, with 33 and 9 pip gains. At 9:45 I had an EUR order trigger, it closed at 9:50 for a 5 pip gain.
I'm begining to conclude that these robots do work, and they work exactly as the creator says they do. They are not without weaknesses. Occaisionaly, they can have big drawdowns in time, and as we have all heard, and some of us have experienced, they can take a loss. The loss on the EURUSD robot was due to the recent excessive volitility in the pair, which was not programed into the robot. The GBPUSD is naturaly a more volitile pair and that is represented by the larger 950 pip stop loss setting.
I dont like or feel comfortable with these large risk settings, but this is not my usual discresionary trading, where I can choose based on chart patterns and risk reward setups. I think that, depending on how carefull we are with our risk settings and not overextending ourselves in order to try and make a large profit, these robots can be a very useful tool. I'm still interested in how many robots I can layer on top of each other without overloading my computer, as good as these two seem to work they still trade very infrequently, for very small moves.
There is a lot of potential here for robots that trade much more aggesively, around the clock, on multiple pairs. As well as for robots that trend follow, trading infrequently, but holding their trades with trailing stops, potentialy capturing much larger moves. I dont know the true limitations of this mgl4 language, but it should be possible to program a robot that makes those decisions, and adjusts between trailing stops and profit targets, or else uses a combination of both, utilizing a multistep approach, taking partial profits at a target, and trailing a stop on the remainder. The other approach would be to have a fleet of robots and manualy activate and assign individual robots, on a more discresionary basis.
I personaly like the second approach, where the human element reads the market and makes the decisions. Assigning certain robots to capture the upswings in an uptrending market, or visa versa, certain robots to trade back and forth in a trading range, etc. I dont know the methods to program this, but it should be posible to program two robots, one to trend and one to oscillate. Then the operator would simply adjust the trading parameters, long, short, both, and a chosen time frame. Set it on the daily, weekly, or even monthly bars to trade a longer term time frame with a good interest carry, set it on tick, minute, or 5 minute bars to trade a volitile situation, or on the hourly, or 4 hour bars to swing trade.
Ah, so many possibilities. I'm going to go check the hopeless stock market, for the inevitable rally. I have some options to manage. And lots of studying, maybe even some exercise? All before the 3pm school pick up. :)
To add comments, please log in or register